The Sierra Club is not my favorite environmental organization. The group too often advocates for extreme environmental standards too difficult to reach in an industrialized society. It has a pessimistic outlook that discounts technological progress and it has a doomsday view of the future. That said, however, a recent article by Jeremy Miller and written for Sierra, the organization’s magazine has an accurate take on the challenges that face Arizona in the midst of the so-called megadrought. https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/inherit-the-dust-colorado-river-phoenix-arizona-drought-climate-crisis
In his article, Miller writes about the history of the region now known as the Valley of the Sun. He notes that the Hohokam settled the region around 450 AD and built an extensive 500-mile irrigation system which allowed them to flourish in the desert for a thousand years. At that point the people mysteriously vanished. Prolonged drought or increased soil salinity could have led to their disappearance, but no one knows for sure.
Fast forward to the late 1800’s when white settlers harnessed the Gila River and built canals much of which they laid on top of the same ancient framework left by the Hohokam. Over time, a favorable climate (ok, for nine months of the year!), a good business environment and civic boosterism fueled growth in the Valley of the Sun. Miller notes growth really took off with the completion of the Central Arizona Project canal giving the area access to Colorado River water in 1993.
I agree with Miller that the hydrological data used in creating the Colorado River Compact of 1922 was overly optimistic, or irrationally exuberant as former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan might say. The compact called for dividing up 18 million acre-feet of water among the seven basin states during a very wet period of time. Using that number versus the average since 1905, the basin states unwittingly overallocated the river by at least 20 percent.
Colorado River Annual Flow
Chart from US Bureau of Reclamation
Where I part with Miller is when he points an accusatory finger at agriculture. True enough, growing food and fiber in the desert uses 75 percent of Arizona’s water supply. Yes, agriculture should continue in its quest to conserve more water, but few people realize the importance of desert agriculture to the world’s food supply. According to the international agricultural research organization ICARDA 44 percent of the world's food and half its livestock is produced in areas receiving under four inches of rain per year. The Agricultural Goldmines of Deserts | ICARDA
Warm desert climates lead to longer growing seasons with fewer catastrophic weather events like flooding, hail, frost, etc. . . . If we marginalize agriculture by paving over farms, turning them into endless seas of housing developments or denying them water like has happened in California we could marginalize ourselves right out of existence!
Right now, the world food supply is in a precarious state. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has disrupted a region of the world that together produces 25 percent of the world’s wheat exports.
Image from the Observatory of Economic Complexity
Additionally, too much rain primarily in the Upper Midwest delayed planting and thus has lowered estimates of US wheat production by 10 percent from last year and by 15 percent below the five year average. Wheat Production and Harvest Archives - U.S. Wheat Associates (uswheat.org)
Sign in California’s San Joaquin Valley in area of fallowed fields
Photo by Cactus Reports
Your eyes may glaze over as you read this edition of the Farm Report, but this is affecting you where you live. Food prices continue to climb at your grocery store. Last month they increased 10.9 percent year over year. Food Inflation in the United States (1968-2022) | US Inflation Calculator Supply disruptions, war, rising fuel and fertilizer costs have all contributed to the increase. While we may need to make short-term adjustments, the West cannot afford to pave over agriculture and/or fallow fields in the long run. Water thirsty cities risk the danger of decreasing agricultural output in an increasingly uncertain world.